Fertility



Wrote a to do in basecamp: https://basecamp.com/2931045/projects/9199813/todos/234736215


Ideas
To do: Calculate wh
interesting EUROMAP Map of Europe of Earliest date of a 10 percent decrease in fertility, by province - Cambridge Economic History Vol. 1
Taken from: The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 1, 1700-1870


Figure 2.7 Earliest date of a 10 percent decrease in fertility, by province (Coale and Watkins, 1986)
Nicht besonders Clevere Farbgebung...
could do the same myself (include 'world') T  BARCHART Years for the total fertility rate to fall from more than 6 children to less than 3. – World Development Report 2012

Source: http://www.gapminder.org.
[ref]This is taken from World Bank (2012) – World Development Report 2012: Gender Equality and Development. Washington, DC: World Bank. Online here. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDR2012/Resources/7778105-1299699968583/7786210-1315936222006/Complete-Report.pdf

[/ref]
World Development Report (2012)
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Text
Some interesting observations (tweets) in words
Hans Rosling ‏@HansRosling
Ethiopian fertility rate fell from 7(1992) to now 4.2 births/women, (=Ghana) http://www.bit.ly/PBiwb6  , i.e. more than halfway to 2-child family
Hans Rosling ‏@HansRosling 10 Mar
40 years ago Turkey had 5 & Sweden 2 babies born / woman. Today both nations have 2 babies/woman. Catch-up completed! http://www.bit.ly/Zum2Lm
Hans Rosling ‏@HansRosling 29 Mar
BREAK.NEWS: The 4 southern States of India(pop.=250 million) now has lower fertility rate(1.8 births/woman) than USA http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2013-03-28/india/38098974_1_fertility-rate-southern-states-population-shrinks
WHO ‏@WHO
Over the last 10 years fertility rates in #China, #Indonesia & other Asian countries dropped below Europe's http://bit.ly/vZWUnu  #ageing
Retweeted by Hans Rosling




THROUGH TIME

Taken own Cumulative global population by level of fertility, Since 1950 – Max Roser
Data on the

Total fertility (TFR) and the Total Population.

Data up to 2010 for the population and 2005-2010 for the fertility are observations. Later data are projections from the UN.

Definition by the source: The average number of children a hypothetical cohort of women would have at the end of their reproductive period if they were subject during their whole lives to the fertility rates of a given period and if they were not subject to mortality. It is expressed as children per woman.

Total Population - Both Sexes    Total Population - Both Sexes. De facto population in a country, area or region as of 1 July of the year indicated. Figures are presented in thousands.
WPP2012_FERT_F04_TOTAL_FERTILITY.XLS
WPP2012_POP_F01_1_TOTAL_POPULATION_BOTH_SEXES.XLS


Cumulative global population by level of fertility, 1950 - 2003.

Source: Wilson 2004 Science 9 April 2004: Vol. 304 no. 5668 pp. 207-209



Fertility Rate – Very Long Run
Fertility and Mortality of Forager Societies
Source 1: TABLE Fertility in Modern Forager Societies – Clark
Gregory Clark (2007) - A Farewell to Alms - a brief economic history of the world

[ref]The Source is Clark (2008) - A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton University Press.

The original source is: aHill and Hurtado, 1996, 262. bKelly, 1995, 246. cHurtado and Hill, 1987, 180.
Note: * denotes values estimated from columns 2–4.
[/ref]

pastedImage1184.tiff

Foreager Fertility.xlsx
Source 2 TABLE Life Expectancy for Modern Foragers – Clark
Screen Shot 2016-02-18 at 18.18.27
Sources: aHill and Hurtado, 1996, 196. bPennington, 2001, 192.
Note: * denotes values estimated from share of population dying by age 15.
mortality foragers.xlsx
[ref]All of this data is taken from Gregory Clark (2007) – A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton University Press.
Source for all mortality and life expectancy data:
Clark’s source for the Ache, Paraguay is Hill, Kim, and A. M. Hurtado. 1996. Ache Life History: The Ecology and Demography of a Foraging People. New York: Aldine de Gruyter.

For all others (Kutchin, Yukon; Hadza, Tanzania; !Kung, Ngamiland, Botswana; !Kung, Dobe, Botswana; Agta, Philippines) – Pennington, Renee. 2001. “Hunter Gatherer Demography.” In Hunter-Gatherers: An Interdisciplinary Perspective, eds. Catherine Panter-Brick, Robert H. Layton, and Peter Rowley-Conwy. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, pp. 171–204.
TABLE Age of Marriage of Women and Marital Fertility in Europe before 1790
Screen Shot 2016-02-18 at 17.59.34
fertility Europe.xlsx

[ref]All of this data is taken from Gregory Clark (2007) – A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton University Press.
His sources are country by country:
Belgium – Flinn, 1981
France – Flinn, 1981 and Weir 1984
Germany – Flinn, 1981
England – Flinn, 1981
Netherlands – De Vries, 1985, 665.
Scandinavia – Flinn, 1981

Long Run
Replace own NVD3 The Total Fertility Rate – Children per Woman 1800-2012 – Max Roser
DATA&xls  Gapminder publishes data on the total fertility rate. Data goes back to 1800 and is available for a great number of countries.
[ref]The data is taken from Gapminder. The data documentation and the spreadsheets available for download can be found here. (The documentation includes a discussion of the quality of the available data on fertility.)  http://www.gapminder.org/data/documentation/gd008/

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is defined as the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if:
1. She were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through her lifetime, and
2. She were to survive from birth through the end of her reproductive life.

This is the definition given by Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility_rate . The same definition is also given by the OECD http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/factbook-2013-en/01/01/02/index.html?itemId=/content/chapter/factbook-2013-2-en and the World Bank http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN .
[/ref]
Roser_CSV_Fertility_GapminderData
TIMESERIES Total fertility rates, United States 1800–2007 - Poston and Bouvier (2010)
pastedImage14050.png
Poston & Bouvier (2010) - Population and Society An Introduction to Demography

[ref]Poston and Bouvier (2010) - Population and Society: An Introduction to Demography. Cambridge University Press. [/ref]
own NVD3 is better TIMESERIES Fertility in northern and western Europe, 1910–45 - Cambridge Economic History Vol. 2
Taken from: The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 2, 1870 to the Present

Figure 10.5 Fertility in northern and western Europe, 1910–45 (contemporary boundaries; average number of births per woman aged 15-49). Source: Chesnais (1999, p. 106). The entries for Republic of Ireland and the UK 1910–14 (which excludes S. Ireland) are estimates.

Chesnais, J.-C. 1999. La fécondité au XXe siècle: une baisse irrégulière, mais profunde et
irrésistible. In Bardet and Dupâquier 1999, pp. 183222.

Bardet, J.-P. and J. Dupâquier, eds. 1999. Histoire des populations de lEurope, Vol. 3,
Les temps incertains, 19141998.
own NVD3 is better TIMESERIES Fertility in southern and eastern Europe, 1910–45 - Cambridge Economic History Vol. 2
Taken from: The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 2, 1870 to the Present

rs

Figure 10.6 Fertility in southern and eastern Europe, 1910–45 (contemporary boundaries; average number of births per woman aged 15-49). Source: as for Figure 10.5. The entries for Czechoslovakia 1914–19, Italy 1910–39, and Yugoslavia 1910–19 and 1940–5 are estimates.

Source: Chesnais (1999, p. 106). The entries for Republic of Ireland and the UK 1910–14 (which excludes S. Ireland) are estimates.

Chesnais, J.-C. 1999. La fécondité au XXe siècle: une baisse irrégulière, mais profunde et
irrésistible. In Bardet and Dupâquier 1999, pp. 183222.

Bardet, J.-P. and J. Dupâquier, eds. 1999. Histoire des populations de lEurope, Vol. 3,
Les temps incertains, 19141998.
TIMESERIES Cohort Fertility Rates - Transition Industrialized Countries, 1831-1945 - Guinnane, 2011
My Source: James Fenske - 2012LectureDemography

Orig Source: Source: Guinnane, 2011, “The Historical Fertility Transition”
super specific TIMESERIES Fertility in France (small sample of 35 Henry Villages) 1750-1810 - Cummins (2011)
My Source: James Fenske - 2012LectureDemography

Orig: Cummins (2011), “Marital Fertility”

- - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Birth Rate – Very Long Run
own NVD3 TIMESERIES Birth Rates – live births per 1,000 people per year – over the long run (1750-2010) – Max Roser – IHS data
[ref]The data is taken from the International Historical Statistics (IHS), edited by Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. (April 2013). The online version is available here. As a printed version it is published by Palgrave.

Germany refers only to West Germany between 1946 and 1989.[/ref]
The IHS data is in this DEVONthink folder:  VITAL STATISTICS RATES PER 1,000 POPULATION (Births, Deaths, Marriages)
My citatation for a single series:
[ref]The data is taken from the International Historical Statistics (IHS), edited by Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. (April 2013). The online version is available here. http://www.palgraveconnect.com/pc/doifinder/10.1057/9781137305688. As a printed version it is published by Palgrave. http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=275960

Germany refers only to West Germany between 1946 and 1989.[/ref]
Roser_CSV_BirthRatesLongRun_IHSdata.csv
not take TIMESERIES Gross and Net Reproduction Rate England, 1540–2000 - Clark Data



Figure 2.1 The fertility history of England, 1540–2000 (Clark 2007a, p. 290, fig. 14.6)
Clark’s explanation:
Figure 14.6 shows the course of the so-called demographic transition in England. The figure shows two measures of fertility. The first is the gross re- production rate (GRR), the average number of daughters born to a woman who lived through the full reproductive span, by decade. Since there were roughly as many sons as daughters born, such a woman would have given birth to nearly five children all the way from the 1540s to the 1890s. Since in England 10–20 percent of each female cohort remained celibate, for married women the average number of births was close to six. The demographic transition to mod- ern fertility rates began only in the 1890s and then progressed rapidly. By 2000 English women gave birth on average to less than two children. This transition in England was similar in timing to that across a whole range of European countries at the end of the nineteenth century.
The second measure of fertility is the net reproduction rate (NRR), the average number of daughters that would be born though her lifetime by the average female born in each decade. If the NRR is 1, then each female born merely replaces herself over the course of a lifetime (having two children on average). Net reproduction rates fell much less. Indeed for the average pre- industrial society the NRR would be much closer to 1 than in prosperous preindustrial England in the years 1540–1800. So the decline in NRR with the arrival of the modern world has been minimal. As we saw in the previous chapter the GRR and NRR both rose in the era of the classic Industrial Rev- olution in England.
TIMESERIES Birth rates over the course of the demographic transition in Sweden and England, since 1545 – Clark (2008)
Gregory Clark (2007) - A Farewell to Alms - a brief economic history of the world

[ref]The Source is Clark (2008) - A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton University Press.

The original source is:
[/ref]

TIMESERIES The Demographic Transition in Western Europe: Crude Birth Rates and Net Reproduction Rates (1700-1920) – Aghion & Durlauf (2006)


Source: Andorka (1978) and Kuzynski (1969)
[ref]This is from a chapter in a working paper version of Philippe Aghion, Steven N. Durlauf (2006) - Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 1A. North Holland.
[/ref]
This is the proper book but I have taken the paper from a working paper version: Philippe Aghion, Steven N. Durlauf (2006) - Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 1A. North Holland.
TIMESERIES The Demographic Transition in Western Europe: Total Fertility Rates (1850-1980) – Aghion & Durlauf (2006)

Source: Chesnais (1992)
[ref]This is from a chapter in a working paper version of Philippe Aghion, Steven N. Durlauf (2006) - Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 1A. North Holland.
[/ref]
This is the proper book but I have taken the paper from a working paper version: Philippe Aghion, Steven N. Durlauf (2006) - Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 1A. North Holland.


Early Modernity – 1950
not take, own NVD3 is better TIMESERIES Crude Birth Rates, Selected Countries, 1820–1970 – Guinnane (2011)

Note: For the United States, values before 1909 are linear interpolations between decennial census years.
Source: Crude birth rates as reported in Mitchell (1980).

Guinnane, Timothy W. (2011) – The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(3): 589-614. DOI: 10.1257/jel.49.3.589
Guinnane, Timothy W. (2011) – The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists.
TIMESERIES Cohort Fertility Rates, England, France, Germany, Italy & USA 1831–1945 – Guinnane (2011)

Notes: The cohort fertility rate is the mean number of children born to women belonging to the birth cohorts on the horizontal axis. The overlapping years are in the source. The precise birth cohorts vary slightly across countries.
Sources: Festy (1979): for England, p. 262; for France, pp. 266–67; for Italy, p. 283; for the United States, p. 290; and for Germany, p. 222. Marschalck (1984), table 3.6, for Germany for the years 1901–1945.
Guinnane, Timothy W. (2011) – The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(3): 589-614. DOI: 10.1257/jel.49.3.589
Guinnane, Timothy W. (2011) – The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists.


Age-specific Fertility
xlsDATA UN & own NVD3 SCATTER Trends in age-specific fertility (Births per 1,000 Women) – Max Roser
UN&Flinn data on ASBR
[ref]Shown is the number of births per 1,000 women in each age bracket. 300 means that out of 1000 women in this each bracket gave birth in the year that the data is referring to.

The source for the data referring to 'before 1790' is taken from table 4.1 in Clark (2008) - A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton University Press.

The original source of this data to which Clark is referring is Michael W. Flinn (1981) – The European Demographic System: 1500–1820. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press., page  86. I have multiplied the 'annual birth rate' presented in Clark (2008) by 1,000 to make it comparable with the UN data.

All other data for the time after 1950 is taken from the United Nations Population Division (2012 Revision) online here. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/fertility.htm


The UN's definition of Age-Specific Fertility Rates can be found here. https://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WFD%202008/Metadata/ASFR.html


[/ref]

xlsDATA UN
WPP2012_FERT_F07_AGE_SPECIFIC_FERTILITY.XLS
used for above TABLE Fertility Rate by age - Married Women, Europe before 1790 - Clark (ließ dazu nochmal die Stelle in seinem Buch)
Gregory Clark (2007) - A Farewell to Alms - a brief economic history of the world

[ref]The Source is Clark (2008) - A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton University Press.

The original source is: Michael W. Flinn (1981) – The European Demographic System: 1500–1820. Baltimore: Johns
Hopkins University Press., page  86.[/ref]

birth.xlsx
very good! TIMESERIES Trends in age-specific fertility, regions of the world: 1970 and 2000–2005 - Poston and Bouvier (2010)
pastedImage14030.png
Poston & Bouvier (2010) - Population and Society An Introduction to Demography

[ref]Poston and Bouvier (2010) - Population and Society: An Introduction to Demography. Cambridge University Press. [/ref]

Their Source: United Nations, 2008a. United Nations. 2008a. World Fertility Patterns 2007, Wall Chart. New York:
United Nations.
TABLE Age-specific fertility rates, United States, 1970–1974 to 2000–2004 - Poston and Bouvier (2010)

Poston & Bouvier (2010) - Population and Society An Introduction to Demography

[ref]Poston and Bouvier (2010) - Population and Society: An Introduction to Demography. Cambridge University Press. [/ref]
usbirth.xlsx

Number of Births
UN publishes data on that
TIMESERIES Absolute number of births in Germany, France, the UK, and Italy from 1957 to 2012


Today
Make World Map with datamaps and UN data
World Map of the total fertility rate, worldwide – The Economist
own datamaps WORLDMAP World maps of the Total Fertility Rate (Children per Woman) in 1960-65 and 2005-10 – Max Roser
[ref]The data is taken from the United Nations Population Division (2012 Revision) online here. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/fertility.htm

DEFINITION
[/ref]
EUROMAP&USAMAP  American Birth Rates vs European Birth Rates



Correlates, Determinants, & Consequences


Determinants of Fertility (Social and Individual)

SCATTER-through-TIME Fertility Rate vs GDP per Capita [Mitchell Data]
SCATTER-through-TIME Fertility Rate vs Education (Literacy) of Women [Mitchell Data]

MACRO - PERSPECTIVE -- SOCIAL



Policy: One-Child Policy?
Hans Rosling ‏@HansRosling 7 Sep
Gapminder World shows that Chines government can´t determine the number of babies born/woman  http://www.bit.ly/14AVNTy  pic.twitter.com/ri4Ubo9dBo



Inequality of Fertility
TIMESERIES Decreasing Inequality of Fertility in the USA, 1900-2000 - Observed and Projected Fertility of Women Who Reached Childbearing Age in the Twentieth Century, by Year of Birth Plus Thirty, USA - Fischer and Hout (2008)

Source: Heuser, “Cohort Fertility Tables, 1917–1970,” and National Center for Health Sta- tistics, “Cohabitation, Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage.”
Note: For women born after 1955, we projected forward to when they finish their child- bearing (projected fertility shown with circles on the lines).
Fischer and Hout (2008) Tables and Figures

[ref]The source of this is Fischer and Hout (2008) - Century of Difference - How America Changed in the Last One Hundred Years, Russell Sage Foundation.

The website of the book is here. https://www.russellsage.org/publications/century-difference
Tables and figures are online here. https://www.russellsage.org/sites/all/files/Fischer_Hout_Tables%20Figures.pdf
[/ref]




Health: Child Mortality -> Fertility
own SCATTER-through-TIME Infant Survival and Fertility through Time – Max Roser
Scatter Fertility Rate vs Infant Mortality
My Plots in Excel





India

Scatter-Fertility-vs-Infant-Survival-(3).png
[ref]The data is taken from the International Historical Statistics (IHS), edited by Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. (April 2013). The online version is available here. http://www.palgraveconnect.com/pc/doifinder/10.1057/9781137305688. As a printed version it is published by Palgrave. http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=275960

The child survival rate is calculated using the IHS data on 'Deaths Of Infants Under One Year Old Per 1,000 Live Births'.
[/ref]
TIMESERIES Infant Mortality and Total Fertility Sweden (1855-2000), Brazil (1950-2000) and Chile (1960-2000)
The Demographic Transition - Montgomery

[ref]The source is The Demographic Transition by Keith Montgomery

Taken from the website of the University of Wisconsin here http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm
[/ref]


TIMESERIES Infant Mortality and Fertility, Sweden 1855-2000
The Demographic Transition - Montgomery

[ref]The source is The Demographic Transition by Keith Montgomery

Taken from the website of the University of Wisconsin here http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm
[/ref]


TIMESERIES Cross Time: Infant Mortality and Total Fertility, Sweden 1855-1935
The Demographic Transition - Montgomery

[ref]The source is The Demographic Transition by Keith Montgomery

Taken from the website of the University of Wisconsin here http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm
[/ref]

TIMESERIES Cross-Country: Infant Mortality and Fertility, 1995
The Demographic Transition - Montgomery

[ref]The source is The Demographic Transition by Keith Montgomery

Taken from the website of the University of Wisconsin here http://www.uwmc.uwc.edu/geography/Demotrans/demtran.htm
[/ref]
SCATTER Very strong Link between low Child Mortality and low Crude Birth Rate - Gapminder

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Rosling bit.ly/1bq1yuP  Tell everyone: 1972 women in Bangladesh had 7 babies & 22% died, 2012 they had 2 and 4% died! http://dieswww.bit.ly/1bq1yuP
determintants of fertility SCATTER Iso-growth curves: Iso-cl ines of equal populat ion growth rates are shown as a funct ion of total fertility rate (TFR) and survivorship to age 15 (/ )(forager, horticulturalist, pastoralist, Forager-horticulturalist, sedentary forager) – Gurven & Kaplan (2007)

NOTE: Each data point refers to a single population.
[ref]This is taken from M Gurven, H Kaplan (2007) – Longevity Among Hunter‐Gatherers: A Cross‐Cultural Examination. Population and Development Review. Volume 33, Issue 2, pages 321–365, June 2007. Online here. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2007.00171.x/abstract
[/ref]
Gurven Kaplan (2007) - Longevity Among Hunter-Gatherers: A Cross-Cultural Examination


Education -> Fertility
The article that Mohamed wrote about in increasing global poverty
TABLE Under-five mortality rate and total fertility rate by mother’s education level - HDR (2013) [Original Source: Lutz and KC 2013]
My Source: HDR_2013 The Rise of the South - Human Progress in a Diverse World (EN_complete)

Original Source: Lutz and KC 2013. -- Lutz, W., and S. KC. 2013. “Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections.” Human Development Research Paper. United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report Office, New York.

Note: Data refer to the period 10 years before the survey year.
Child Mortality rate TFR and mothers Education.xlsx
Im gleichen Paper sind auch Forcasts je nach BildungsSzenario

BARCHART Female Youth Literacy Relative to Male Youth Literacy and Infant Mortality, 2003 - Goldin & Reinert (2007)
My Source: Ian Goldin, Kenneth A. Reinert (2007) - Globalization for Development



Original Source: United Nations Development Programme (2005) - Human Development Report 2005. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
SCATTER Marital fertility for 1870 and 1930 by school enrollment in 1870 - Cambridge Economic History Vol. 1
Taken from: The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 1, 1700-1870

Figure 2.10 Marital fertility for 1870 and 1930 by school enrollment in 1870 (Coale and Watkins, 1986; Lindert, 2004)

Die Daten von Lindert 2004 sind schon in meiner Database
TABLE Women’s education and fertility rates in some African countries – Mäler & Vincent (2003)

Source: Jolly and Gribble (1993, Table 3.6).
womeduandfert.xlsx

Source: Jolly and Gribble (1993, Table 3.6) and Cohen (1993, Table 2.4).
womedu.xlsx
[ref]This is taken from a chapter in Karl-Göran Mäler, Jeffrey R. Vincent (2003) - Handbook of Environmental Economics, Volume 1: Environmental Degradation and Institutional Responses. North Holland.
[/ref]
Karl-Göran Mäler, Jeffrey R. Vincent (2003) - Handbook of Environmental Economics, Volume 1_ Environmental Degradation and Institutional Responses. North Holland.
TIMESERIES – In the US there are more women with higher education that have babies now The old relationship between class and birth rates has been inverted

http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2013/09/11/more-money-more-children/
But the US women are also just generally better educated.

Race –> Fertility
better data on Birth Rates by Race are in IHS! TIMESERIES U.S. total fertility rate (TFR) by race, 1960–90 - Zimring (2006)
My Source: Zimring (2006) - The Great American Crime Decline

Original Source: National Center for Health Statistics. 1990. Hyattsville, Md.: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics.

Note: To compensate for missing data, values for the African American TFR have been linearly interpo- lated for 1961–63.

Religion & Values
SCATTER Religious Values and Population Growth Rates, 1975–1998. (Strong Correlation - but not causal link but rather same cause (development))
Source: Norris & Inglehart (2004) - Sacred and Secular - Religion and Politics Worldwide

[ref]Norris  and Inglehart (2004) - *Sacred and Secular: Religion and Politics Worldwide*. Cambridge University Press. [/ref]

Original Source: Annual population growth rate 1975–1997: World Bank 2003 World Development Indicators.
Washington, DC: World Bank, available online at: www.worldbank.org.
Source: World Values Survey, pooled 1981–2001.


Notes: Importance of religion: Q10: “How important is religion in your life? Very important,
rather important, not very important, not at all important.”
There is a presentation by Rosling on this topic
SCATTER Fertility Rates and Traditional/Secular-Rational Values, mid-1990s. -- I should make this Graph with HDI or GDP per Capita as Determinant
Source: Norris & Inglehart (2004) - Sacred and Secular - Religion and Politics Worldwide

[ref]Norris  and Inglehart (2004) - *Sacred and Secular: Religion and Politics Worldwide*. Cambridge University Press. [/ref]

Original Source:


Ideal vs Actual Number of Children
great! but can we get these data to do it ourselves? TIMESERIES Ideal and Actual Number of Births, by Year,USA - Fischer and Hout (2008)

Sources: Ideal number of births (mean value): Gallup polls (1935 to 1997) and General Social Survey (1972 to 2000); actual number of births: see figure 4.3.
Note: Actual numbers of births are cohort total fertility rates dated to the year the cohort turned thirty years old.
Fischer and Hout (2008) Tables and Figures

[ref]The source of this is Fischer and Hout (2008) - Century of Difference - How America Changed in the Last One Hundred Years, Russell Sage Foundation.

The website of the book is here. https://www.russellsage.org/publications/century-difference
Tables and figures are online here. https://www.russellsage.org/sites/all/files/Fischer_Hout_Tables%20Figures.pdf
[/ref]




Income -> Fertility
important Chart! Until 1800s: higher wages->more children – Then broken: Escape from the Malthusian world TIMESERIES Crude Birth Rates and Real Wages, England, 1541–1871 – Guinnane (2011)

Notes: This figure differs from Wrigley and Schofield (1981, figure 10.1) in two ways. I plot the CBR, not the Gross Rate of Reproduction. The real wage index here is Robert Allen’s “labourers” index, rather than the Phelps Brown-Hopkins index. The series plotted are centered eleven-year moving averages. Allen’s index can be found at: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/members/robert.allen/WagesPrices.htm.
Source: Based on Wrigley and Schofield (1981), figure 10.6.

Most of the literature uses Malthusian models to understand the relationship between population and the economy before the fertility transition, and views the fertility transition as an escape from the Malthusian world. Figure 5 shows that escape: until the early nineteenth century, there was a posi- tive relationship between fertility and the real wage in England and Wales. Then the relationship breaks down: higher wages,
the product of capital accumulation and technological change, no longer translated into higher fertility.
Guinnane, Timothy W. (2011) – The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(3): 589-614. DOI: 10.1257/jel.49.3.589
Guinnane, Timothy W. (2011) – The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists.
SCATTER Graph of Total Fertility Rate vs. GDP per capita of the corresponding country, 2009 – Wikipedia

Only countries with over 5 Million population were plotted, to reduce outliers. Sources: CIA World Fact Book.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:TFR_vs_PPP_2009.svg
SCATTER Index of marital fertility by gross domestic product per capita, 1870 and 1930 - Cambridge Economic History Vol. 1
Taken from: The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 1, 1700-1870


Figure 2.8 Index of marital fertility by gross domestic product per capita, 1870 and 1930 (Coale and Watkins, 1986; Maddison, 2003a)
SCATTER Gapminder Scatter between Income and Fertility

BARCHART At low incomes, fertility rates remain high—And the poorer the country, the larger the gap between rich and poor – World Development Report 2012

Source: WDR 2012 team estimates based on Demographic and Health Surveys.
[ref]This is taken from World Bank (2012) – World Development Report 2012: Gender Equality and Development. Washington, DC: World Bank. Online here. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDR2012/Resources/7778105-1299699968583/7786210-1315936222006/Complete-Report.pdf

[/ref]
World Development Report (2012)
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HDI -> Fertility
PAPER The relation between development (measured by HDI) and fertility is U-shaped – Nature
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v460/n7256/abs/nature08230.html

During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates1, 2. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences1, 2, 3. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman)4. In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible5, 6, 7, 8, 9. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge10. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development–fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positively associated with fertility among highly developed countries. This reversal of fertility decline as a result of continued economic and social development has the potential to slow the rates of population ageing, thereby ameliorating the social and economic problems that have been associated with the emergence and persistence of very low fertility.
Important! SCATTER Cross-sectional relationship between TFR and HDI in 1975 and 2005.

Mikko Myrskylä, Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari (2009) – Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature 460, 741-743 (6 August 2009) | doi:10.1038/nature08230; Received 1 April 2009; Accepted 17 June 2009
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v460/n7256/full/nature08230.html


The TFR reflects the number of children that would be born to a woman during her lifetime if she experienced the age-specific fertility rates observed in a calendar year.

The HDI is the primary index used by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to monitor and evaluate broadly defined human development, combining with equal weight indicators of a country's health conditions, living standard and human capital11.

An HDI of 0.9 roughly corresponds to 75 years of life expectancy, a GDP per capita of 25,000 US dollars in year 2000 purchasing power parity, and a 0.95 education index (a weighted sum of standardized literacy rate and primary, secondary and tertiary level gross enrolment ratios).

The 1975 data include 107 countries, with 1975 HDI levels ranging from 0.25 to 0.887, and 1975 TFR levels ranging from 1.45 to 8.5; the 2005 data include 140 countries, with 2005 HDI levels ranging from 0.3 to 0.966, and 2005 TFR levels ranging from 1.08 to 7.7. The Spearman's rank correlation between HDI and TFR in 1975 is -0.85 (P < 0.01); the Spearman's rank correlation between HDI and TFR in 2005 is -0.84 (P < 0.01) for countries with HDI < 0.85, and 0.51 (P < 0.01) for countries with HDI greater than or equal to 0.9.

For further details, see Supplementary Information. Countries with a 2005 HDI greater than or equal to 0.9 include (2005 HDI in parentheses): Australia (0.966), Norway (0.961), Iceland (0.956), Ireland (0.95), Luxembourg (0.949), Sweden (0.947), Canada (0.946), Finland (0.945), France (0.945), the Netherlands (0.945), the United States (0.944), Denmark (0.943), Japan (0.943), Switzerland (0.942), Belgium (0.94), New Zealand (0.938), Spain (0.938), the United Kingdom (0.936), Austria (0.934), Italy (0.934), Israel (0.922), Greece (0.918), Germany (0.916), Slovenia (0.913) and South Korea (0.911).

Women’s status –> Fertility
Fertility rates and indicators of women’s status in 79 developing countries – Mäler & Vincent (2003)

N: number of countries.
TFR: total fertility rate.
PE: women’s share of paid employment (%).
UE: percentage of women working as unpaid family workers.
I : women’s illiteracy rate (%).
Source: IIED/WRI (1987, Table 2.3).
ferti.xlsx
[ref]This is taken from a chapter in Karl-Göran Mäler, Jeffrey R. Vincent (2003) - Handbook of Environmental Economics, Volume 1: Environmental Degradation and Institutional Responses. North Holland.
[/ref]
Karl-Göran Mäler, Jeffrey R. Vincent (2003) - Handbook of Environmental Economics, Volume 1_ Environmental Degradation and Institutional Responses. North Holland.



MICRO - PERSPECTIVE -- INDIVIDUAL



By Age
Relative changes in age-specific conception rates, 1990–2011 in England and Wales

http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171778_301080.pdf
Copyright

© Crown copyright 2013

You may use or re-use this information (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence. To view this licence, visit

www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/ or write to the Information Policy T
chdagefig2_tcm77-301063.xls


Reproductive Success by Income, Education, Hierarchical Standing
TABLE Reproductive Success of Male Yanomamo, 1987 (by Killer and Non-Killer father) - Clark [Chagnon Data]
Gregory Clark (2007) - A Farewell to Alms - a brief economic history of the world

[ref]The Source is Clark (2008) - A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton University Press.

The original source is: Chagnon, 1988.
[/ref]

chag.xlsx
TABLE Children Born per Married Man in England, (1891–1911) by social status - Clark
Gregory Clark (2007) - A Farewell to Alms - a brief economic history of the world

[ref]The Source is Clark (2008) - A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton University Press.

The original source is: Garrett et al., 2001, 291, 297.
[/ref]

TIMESERIES Surviving children as a function of wealth in England, circa 1620 - Clark
Gregory Clark (2007) - A Farewell to Alms - a brief economic history of the world

[ref]The Source is Clark (2008) - A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton University Press.

The bands for each wealth class show the range of values within which we can be 95 percent confident that the
true numbers of surviving children per testator lay.
[/ref]

BARCHART Average Number of Children by Socioeconomic Group - France - Clark and Hamilton
My Source: James Fenske - 2012LectureDemography

Source: Clark and Hamilton “Economic status and reproductive success in New France”


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Measurement, Data Quality & Definitions

List: http://www.geography.hunter.cuny.edu/~tbw/ncc/Notes/Chapter6.pop/chapter.6.what.factors.affect.birth.fertility.rates.outline.html

All definitions are here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility#Demography
Period Measures
The definition of the Birth Rate – or Crude Birth Rate (CBR) – is "the number of live births occurring among the population of a given geographical area during a given year, per 1,000 mid-year total population of the given geographical area during the same year".[ref]This definition is quoted after the OECD Glossary of Statistical Terms here. https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=490 [/ref]

Cohort Measures
The Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR) "measures the annual number of births to women of a specified age or age group per 1,000 women in that age group."[ref]This is the definition given in the UN's World Fertility Report 2009. http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WFR2009_Web/Data/Meta_Data/ASFR.pdf [/ref]
The Fertility Rate – or Total Fertility Rate (TFR) – is defined as the average number of children that would be born to a woman over her lifetime if:
1. She were to experience the exact current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) through her lifetime, and
2. She were to survive from birth through the end of her reproductive life.[ref]This is the definition given by Wikipedia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fertility_rate .
The same definition is also given by the OECD http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/factbook-2013-en/01/01/02/index.html?itemId=/content/chapter/factbook-2013-2-en and the World Bank http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN .

The Total Fertility Rate is also called period total fertility rate (PTFR) or total period fertility rate (TPFR).[/ref]
The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) is defined as "the average number of daughters a hypothetical cohort of women would have at the end of their reproductive period if they were subject during their whole lives to the fertility rates and the mortality rates of a given period. It is expressed as number of daughters per woman".[ref]This is the definition given by the United Nations World Population Prospects here http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/fertility.htm . [/ref]
The Cumulative Period Fertility Rates (CPFR)


interesting! TIMESERIES Total Fertility Rate and General Fertility Rate: United States, 1970–2005 - Poston and Bouvier (2010)


Poston & Bouvier (2010) - Population and Society An Introduction to Demography

[ref]Poston and Bouvier (2010) - Population and Society: An Introduction to Demography. Cambridge University Press. [/ref]
Source: The authors.

Data Quality
Hans Rosling ‏@HansRosling 22 May
Variation of births/women between Provinces of Turkey (4.4 to 1.4) http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=13618 … is equal to difference between IvoryCoast & Japan.



DATA

Post 1950
Gapminder publishes TFR since 1800
The United Nations World Population Prospects online here http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp include data on the number of annual births, the Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Total fertility (TFR), Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) among other measures. Data is available for the entire world – for countries and world regions – from 1950 onwards.
DATA&xls The Human Fertility Database (HFD) http://www.humanfertility.org/cgi-bin/main.php and Human Fertility Data http://www.fertilitydata.org/cgi-bin/data.php publish data for more than 70 countries covering mostly the 2nd half of the 20th century although data for the 1st half of the century is available for some countries. The data is detailed and includes data on fertility rates (by age (ASFR), cohort and period) and mean ages at childbearing.
Sweden, Norway, and Finland are the only countries in the this data with info pre 1880. Most is post 1950.
ASFR and CPFR, standardized age scale (All birth orders combined)
DATA&xls  Vital Statistics Rates Per 1,000 Population (Births rate, Death rate, infant mortality rate, Marriages) no Fertility Rate  –  International Historical Statistics
The IHS data is in this DEVONthink folder:  VITAL STATISTICS RATES PER 1,000 POPULATION (Births, Deaths, Marriages)
My citatation for a single series:
[ref]This data is taken from the International Historical Statistics (IHS), edited by Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. (April 2013). The online version is available here. http://www.palgraveconnect.com/pc/doifinder/10.1057/9781137305688. As a printed version it is published by Palgrave. http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=275960

[/ref]
Generelle Beschreibung der Quelle
Data from 1750 onwards for countries around the world is available in the International Historical Statistics (IHS). These statistics – orignally published under the editorial leadership of Brian Mitchell (since 1983) – are a collection of data sets taken from many primary sources, including both official national and international abstracts dating back to 1750. The books are published in three volumes covering more than 5000 pages.[ref]The printed version is published in 3 volumes: Africa, Asia, Oceania – The Americas – Europe. The volume set is described at the publisher's website here. http://www.palgraveconnect.com/pc/doifinder/10.1057/9781137305688[/ref] At some universities you can access the online version of the books where data tables can be downloaded as ePDFs and Excel files. The online access is here. http://www.palgraveconnect.com/pc/doifinder/10.1057/9781137305688

DATA Wrigley & Schofield have data on Fertility and Mortality over the long-run. Leander says it's very good.
Clio Infra has no fertility data

Post 1950
World Bank
DATA Annual data on 'Fertility rate, total (births per woman)' [by country] is available in the World Development Indicators (WDI) published by the World Bank (here).
DATA Annual data on 'Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people)' [by country] is available in the World Development Indicators (WDI) published by the World Bank (here).
The Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) include data on fertility and are online here. http://www.measuredhs.com/ Data is available for more than 90 countries from the early 1990s onwards – here is the list of countries http://www.measuredhs.com/data/available-datasets.cfm . For the time preceding the DHS data timeframe the World Fertility Survey is available at Princeton University here  http://opr.princeton.edu/archive/wfs/ .
DevEconData DATA     World Fertility Surveys (WFS)
The Eurostat website 'Statistics Explained' publishes up-to-date statistical information on Fertility http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Fertility_statistics
For a comparison of the latest available data (last ±5 years) of different data sets see Wikipedia here. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_by_birth_rate
DATA&xls  Gapminder publishes data on the total fertility rate. Data goes back to 1800 and is available for a great number of countries. The data documentation and the spreadsheets available for download can be found here. (The documentation includes a discussion of the quality of the available data on fertility.)  http://www.gapminder.org/data/documentation/gd008/
GapminderFertilityData

Important regular publications
The UN's World Fertility Report 2012 is online here. https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/dataset/fertility/wfr2012/MainFrame.html


Total fertility rate map: average births per woman by districts, 2011




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