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  | interesting EUROMAP Map of Europe of Earliest date of a 10 percent decrease in fertility, by province - Cambridge Economic History Vol. 1
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  | Taken from: The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 1, 1700-1870
 Figure 2.7 Earliest date of a 10 percent decrease in fertility, by province (Coale and Watkins, 1986)
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  | Nicht besonders Clevere Farbgebung...
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  | could do the same myself (include 'world') T BARCHART Years for the total fertility rate to fall from more than 6 children to less than 3. – World Development Report 2012
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  | The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com.
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  | Some interesting observations (tweets) in words
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  | Hans Rosling @HansRosling Ethiopian fertility rate fell from 7(1992) to now 4.2 births/women, (=Ghana) http://www.bit.ly/PBiwb6 , i.e. more than halfway to 2-child family
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  | Hans Rosling @HansRosling 10 Mar 40 years ago Turkey had 5 & Sweden 2 babies born / woman. Today both nations have 2 babies/woman. Catch-up completed! http://www.bit.ly/Zum2Lm
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  | WHO @WHO Over the last 10 years fertility rates in #China, #Indonesia & other Asian countries dropped below Europe's http://bit.ly/vZWUnu #ageing Retweeted by Hans Rosling
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  | Taken own Cumulative global population by level of fertility, Since 1950 – Max Roser
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  | Data on the
Total fertility (TFR) and the Total Population.
Data up to 2010 for the population and 2005-2010 for the fertility are observations. Later data are projections from the UN.
Definition by the source: The average number of children a hypothetical cohort of women would have at the end of their reproductive period if they were subject during their whole lives to the fertility rates of a given period and if they were not subject to mortality. It is expressed as children per woman.
Total Population - Both Sexes Total Population - Both Sexes. De facto population in a country, area or region as of 1 July of the year indicated. Figures are presented in thousands.
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  | WPP2012_FERT_F04_TOTAL_FERTILITY.XLS
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  | WPP2012_POP_F01_1_TOTAL_POPULATION_BOTH_SEXES.XLS
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  | Cumulative global population by level of fertility, 1950 - 2003.
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  | Source: Wilson 2004 Science 9 April 2004: Vol. 304 no. 5668 pp. 207-209
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  | Fertility Rate – Very Long Run
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  | Fertility and Mortality of Forager Societies
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  | Source 1: TABLE Fertility in Modern Forager Societies – Clark
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  | Source 2 TABLE Life Expectancy for Modern Foragers – Clark
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  | Screen Shot 2016-02-18 at 18.18.27
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  | Sources: aHill and Hurtado, 1996, 196. bPennington, 2001, 192. Note: * denotes values estimated from share of population dying by age 15.
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  | [ref]All of this data is taken from Gregory Clark (2007) – A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton University Press. Source for all mortality and life expectancy data: Clark’s source for the Ache, Paraguay is Hill, Kim, and A. M. Hurtado. 1996. Ache Life History: The Ecology and Demography of a Foraging People. New York: Aldine de Gruyter.
For all others (Kutchin, Yukon; Hadza, Tanzania; !Kung, Ngamiland, Botswana; !Kung, Dobe, Botswana; Agta, Philippines) – Pennington, Renee. 2001. “Hunter Gatherer Demography.” In Hunter-Gatherers: An Interdisciplinary Perspective, eds. Catherine Panter-Brick, Robert H. Layton, and Peter Rowley-Conwy. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press, pp. 171–204.
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  | TABLE Age of Marriage of Women and Marital Fertility in Europe before 1790
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  | Screen Shot 2016-02-18 at 17.59.34
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  | [ref]All of this data is taken from Gregory Clark (2007) – A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton University Press. His sources are country by country: Belgium – Flinn, 1981 France – Flinn, 1981 and Weir 1984 Germany – Flinn, 1981 England – Flinn, 1981 Netherlands – De Vries, 1985, 665. Scandinavia – Flinn, 1981
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  | Replace own NVD3 The Total Fertility Rate – Children per Woman 1800-2012 – Max Roser
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  | DATA&xls Gapminder publishes data on the total fertility rate. Data goes back to 1800 and is available for a great number of countries.
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  | Roser_CSV_Fertility_GapminderData
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  | TIMESERIES Total fertility rates, United States 1800–2007 - Poston and Bouvier (2010)
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  | own NVD3 is better TIMESERIES Fertility in northern and western Europe, 1910–45 - Cambridge Economic History Vol. 2
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  | Taken from: The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 2, 1870 to the Present
 Figure 10.5 Fertility in northern and western Europe, 1910–45 (contemporary boundaries; average number of births per woman aged 15-49). Source: Chesnais (1999, p. 106). The entries for Republic of Ireland and the UK 1910–14 (which excludes S. Ireland) are estimates.
Chesnais, J.-C. 1999. La fécondité au XXe siècle: une baisse irrégulière, mais profunde et irrésistible. In Bardet and Dupâquier 1999, pp. 183–222.
Bardet, J.-P. and J. Dupâquier, eds. 1999. Histoire des populations de l’Europe, Vol. 3, Les temps incertains, 1914–1998.
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  | own NVD3 is better TIMESERIES Fertility in southern and eastern Europe, 1910–45 - Cambridge Economic History Vol. 2
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  | Taken from: The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 2, 1870 to the Present
rs
Figure 10.6 Fertility in southern and eastern Europe, 1910–45 (contemporary boundaries; average number of births per woman aged 15-49). Source: as for Figure 10.5. The entries for Czechoslovakia 1914–19, Italy 1910–39, and Yugoslavia 1910–19 and 1940–5 are estimates.
Source: Chesnais (1999, p. 106). The entries for Republic of Ireland and the UK 1910–14 (which excludes S. Ireland) are estimates.
Chesnais, J.-C. 1999. La fécondité au XXe siècle: une baisse irrégulière, mais profunde et irrésistible. In Bardet and Dupâquier 1999, pp. 183–222.
Bardet, J.-P. and J. Dupâquier, eds. 1999. Histoire des populations de l’Europe, Vol. 3, Les temps incertains, 1914–1998.
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  | TIMESERIES Cohort Fertility Rates - Transition Industrialized Countries, 1831-1945 - Guinnane, 2011
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  | super specific TIMESERIES Fertility in France (small sample of 35 Henry Villages) 1750-1810 - Cummins (2011)
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  | - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
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  | Birth Rate – Very Long Run
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  | own NVD3 TIMESERIES Birth Rates – live births per 1,000 people per year – over the long run (1750-2010) – Max Roser – IHS data
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  | [ref]The data is taken from the International Historical Statistics (IHS), edited by Palgrave Macmillan Ltd. (April 2013). The online version is available here. As a printed version it is published by Palgrave.
Germany refers only to West Germany between 1946 and 1989.[/ref]
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  | My citatation for a single series:
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  | Roser_CSV_BirthRatesLongRun_IHSdata.csv
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  | not take TIMESERIES Gross and Net Reproduction Rate England, 1540–2000 - Clark Data
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  |

Figure 2.1 The fertility history of England, 1540–2000 (Clark 2007a, p. 290, fig. 14.6)
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  | Clark’s explanation: Figure 14.6 shows the course of the so-called demographic transition in England. The figure shows two measures of fertility. The first is the gross re- production rate (GRR), the average number of daughters born to a woman who lived through the full reproductive span, by decade. Since there were roughly as many sons as daughters born, such a woman would have given birth to nearly five children all the way from the 1540s to the 1890s. Since in England 10–20 percent of each female cohort remained celibate, for married women the average number of births was close to six. The demographic transition to mod- ern fertility rates began only in the 1890s and then progressed rapidly. By 2000 English women gave birth on average to less than two children. This transition in England was similar in timing to that across a whole range of European countries at the end of the nineteenth century. The second measure of fertility is the net reproduction rate (NRR), the average number of daughters that would be born though her lifetime by the average female born in each decade. If the NRR is 1, then each female born merely replaces herself over the course of a lifetime (having two children on average). Net reproduction rates fell much less. Indeed for the average pre- industrial society the NRR would be much closer to 1 than in prosperous preindustrial England in the years 1540–1800. So the decline in NRR with the arrival of the modern world has been minimal. As we saw in the previous chapter the GRR and NRR both rose in the era of the classic Industrial Rev- olution in England.
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  | TIMESERIES Birth rates over the course of the demographic transition in Sweden and England, since 1545 – Clark (2008)
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  | TIMESERIES The Demographic Transition in Western Europe: Crude Birth Rates and Net Reproduction Rates (1700-1920) – Aghion & Durlauf (2006)
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  | Source: Andorka (1978) and Kuzynski (1969)
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  | [ref]This is from a chapter in a working paper version of Philippe Aghion, Steven N. Durlauf (2006) - Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 1A. North Holland. [/ref]
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  | TIMESERIES The Demographic Transition in Western Europe: Total Fertility Rates (1850-1980) – Aghion & Durlauf (2006)
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  | [ref]This is from a chapter in a working paper version of Philippe Aghion, Steven N. Durlauf (2006) - Handbook of Economic Growth, Volume 1A. North Holland. [/ref]
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  | not take, own NVD3 is better TIMESERIES Crude Birth Rates, Selected Countries, 1820–1970 – Guinnane (2011)
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  | Note: For the United States, values before 1909 are linear interpolations between decennial census years. Source: Crude birth rates as reported in Mitchell (1980).
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  | Guinnane, Timothy W. (2011) – The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(3): 589-614. DOI: 10.1257/jel.49.3.589
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  | TIMESERIES Cohort Fertility Rates, England, France, Germany, Italy & USA 1831–1945 – Guinnane (2011)
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  | Notes: The cohort fertility rate is the mean number of children born to women belonging to the birth cohorts on the horizontal axis. The overlapping years are in the source. The precise birth cohorts vary slightly across countries. Sources: Festy (1979): for England, p. 262; for France, pp. 266–67; for Italy, p. 283; for the United States, p. 290; and for Germany, p. 222. Marschalck (1984), table 3.6, for Germany for the years 1901–1945.
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  | Guinnane, Timothy W. (2011) – The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(3): 589-614. DOI: 10.1257/jel.49.3.589
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  | xlsDATA UN & own NVD3 SCATTER Trends in age-specific fertility (Births per 1,000 Women) – Max Roser
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  | [ref]Shown is the number of births per 1,000 women in each age bracket. 300 means that out of 1000 women in this each bracket gave birth in the year that the data is referring to.
The source for the data referring to 'before 1790' is taken from table 4.1 in Clark (2008) - A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World. Princeton University Press.
The original source of this data to which Clark is referring is Michael W. Flinn (1981) – The European Demographic System: 1500–1820. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press., page 86. I have multiplied the 'annual birth rate' presented in Clark (2008) by 1,000 to make it comparable with the UN data.
All other data for the time after 1950 is taken from the United Nations Population Division (2012 Revision) online here. http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/fertility.htm
The UN's definition of Age-Specific Fertility Rates can be found here. https://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WFD%202008/Metadata/ASFR.html
[/ref]
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  | WPP2012_FERT_F07_AGE_SPECIFIC_FERTILITY.XLS
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  | used for above TABLE Fertility Rate by age - Married Women, Europe before 1790 - Clark (ließ dazu nochmal die Stelle in seinem Buch)
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  | very good! TIMESERIES Trends in age-specific fertility, regions of the world: 1970 and 2000–2005 - Poston and Bouvier (2010)
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  | TABLE Age-specific fertility rates, United States, 1970–1974 to 2000–2004 - Poston and Bouvier (2010)
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  | UN publishes data on that
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  | TIMESERIES Absolute number of births in Germany, France, the UK, and Italy from 1957 to 2012
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  | Make World Map with datamaps and UN data
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  | World Map of the total fertility rate, worldwide – The Economist
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  | own datamaps WORLDMAP World maps of the Total Fertility Rate (Children per Woman) in 1960-65 and 2005-10 – Max Roser
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  | EUROMAP&USAMAP American Birth Rates vs European Birth Rates
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  | Correlates, Determinants, & Consequences
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  | Determinants of Fertility (Social and Individual)
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  | SCATTER-through-TIME Fertility Rate vs GDP per Capita [Mitchell Data]
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  | SCATTER-through-TIME Fertility Rate vs Education (Literacy) of Women [Mitchell Data]
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  | MACRO - PERSPECTIVE -- SOCIAL
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  | Policy: One-Child Policy?
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  | Hans Rosling @HansRosling 7 Sep Gapminder World shows that Chines government can´t determine the number of babies born/woman http://www.bit.ly/14AVNTy pic.twitter.com/ri4Ubo9dBo
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  | TIMESERIES Decreasing Inequality of Fertility in the USA, 1900-2000 - Observed and Projected Fertility of Women Who Reached Childbearing Age in the Twentieth Century, by Year of Birth Plus Thirty, USA - Fischer and Hout (2008)
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  | Source: Heuser, “Cohort Fertility Tables, 1917–1970,” and National Center for Health Sta- tistics, “Cohabitation, Marriage, Divorce, and Remarriage.” Note: For women born after 1955, we projected forward to when they finish their child- bearing (projected fertility shown with circles on the lines).
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  | Health: Child Mortality -> Fertility
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  | own SCATTER-through-TIME Infant Survival and Fertility through Time – Max Roser
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  | Scatter Fertility Rate vs Infant Mortality
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  | Scatter-Fertility-vs-Infant-Survival-(3).png
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  | TIMESERIES Infant Mortality and Total Fertility Sweden (1855-2000), Brazil (1950-2000) and Chile (1960-2000)
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  | TIMESERIES Infant Mortality and Fertility, Sweden 1855-2000
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  | TIMESERIES Cross Time: Infant Mortality and Total Fertility, Sweden 1855-1935
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  | TIMESERIES Cross-Country: Infant Mortality and Fertility, 1995
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  | SCATTER Very strong Link between low Child Mortality and low Crude Birth Rate - Gapminder
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  | undefined#$majorMode=chart$is;shi=t;ly=2003;lb=f;il=t;fs=11;al=25;stl=t;st=t;nsl=t;se=t$wst;tts=C$ts;sp=6;ti=2011$zpv;v=1$inc_x;mmid=XCOORDS;iid=0ArfEDsV3bBwCcGhBd2NOQVZ1eWowNVpSNjl1c3lRSWc;by=ind$inc_y;mmid=YCOORDS;iid=tUSeGJOQhafugwUvHvY%2DwLA;by=ind$inc_s;uniValue=20;iid=phAwcNAVuyj0XOoBL%5Fn5tAQ;by=ind$inc_c;uniValue=255;gid=CATID0;by=grp$map_x;scale=log;dataMin=1.8;dataMax=682$map_y;scale=lin;dataMin=6;dataMax=58$map_s;sma=50;smi=2$cd;bd=0$inds=
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  | Rosling bit.ly/1bq1yuP Tell everyone: 1972 women in Bangladesh had 7 babies & 22% died, 2012 they had 2 and 4% died! http://dieswww.bit.ly/1bq1yuP
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  | determintants of fertility SCATTER Iso-growth curves: Iso-cl ines of equal populat ion growth rates are shown as a funct ion of total fertility rate (TFR) and survivorship to age 15 (/ )(forager, horticulturalist, pastoralist, Forager-horticulturalist, sedentary forager) – Gurven & Kaplan (2007)
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  | NOTE: Each data point refers to a single population.
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  | The article that Mohamed wrote about in increasing global poverty
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  | TABLE Under-five mortality rate and total fertility rate by mother’s education level - HDR (2013) [Original Source: Lutz and KC 2013]
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  | My Source: HDR_2013 The Rise of the South - Human Progress in a Diverse World (EN_complete)
Original Source: Lutz and KC 2013. -- Lutz, W., and S. KC. 2013. “Demography and Human Development: Education and Population Projections.” Human Development Research Paper. United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report Office, New York.
Note: Data refer to the period 10 years before the survey year.
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  | Child Mortality rate TFR and mothers Education.xlsx
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  | Im gleichen Paper sind auch Forcasts je nach BildungsSzenario
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  | BARCHART Female Youth Literacy Relative to Male Youth Literacy and Infant Mortality, 2003 - Goldin & Reinert (2007)
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  | SCATTER Marital fertility for 1870 and 1930 by school enrollment in 1870 - Cambridge Economic History Vol. 1
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  | Taken from: The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 1, 1700-1870
 Figure 2.10 Marital fertility for 1870 and 1930 by school enrollment in 1870 (Coale and Watkins, 1986; Lindert, 2004)
Die Daten von Lindert 2004 sind schon in meiner Database
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  | TABLE Women’s education and fertility rates in some African countries – Mäler & Vincent (2003)
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  | Source: Jolly and Gribble (1993, Table 3.6).
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  | Source: Jolly and Gribble (1993, Table 3.6) and Cohen (1993, Table 2.4).
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  | [ref]This is taken from a chapter in Karl-Göran Mäler, Jeffrey R. Vincent (2003) - Handbook of Environmental Economics, Volume 1: Environmental Degradation and Institutional Responses. North Holland. [/ref]
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  | TIMESERIES – In the US there are more women with higher education that have babies now The old relationship between class and birth rates has been inverted
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  | But the US women are also just generally better educated.
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  | better data on Birth Rates by Race are in IHS! TIMESERIES U.S. total fertility rate (TFR) by race, 1960–90 - Zimring (2006)
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  | My Source: Zimring (2006) - The Great American Crime Decline
Original Source: National Center for Health Statistics. 1990. Hyattsville, Md.: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics.
Note: To compensate for missing data, values for the African American TFR have been linearly interpo- lated for 1961–63.
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  | SCATTER Religious Values and Population Growth Rates, 1975–1998. (Strong Correlation - but not causal link but rather same cause (development))
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  | Source: Norris & Inglehart (2004) - Sacred and Secular - Religion and Politics Worldwide
[ref]Norris and Inglehart (2004) - *Sacred and Secular: Religion and Politics Worldwide*. Cambridge University Press. [/ref]
Original Source: Annual population growth rate 1975–1997: World Bank 2003 World Development Indicators. Washington, DC: World Bank, available online at: www.worldbank.org. Source: World Values Survey, pooled 1981–2001.
Notes: Importance of religion: Q10: “How important is religion in your life? Very important, rather important, not very important, not at all important.”
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  | There is a presentation by Rosling on this topic
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  | SCATTER Fertility Rates and Traditional/Secular-Rational Values, mid-1990s. -- I should make this Graph with HDI or GDP per Capita as Determinant
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  | Ideal vs Actual Number of Children
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  | great! but can we get these data to do it ourselves? TIMESERIES Ideal and Actual Number of Births, by Year,USA - Fischer and Hout (2008)
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  | Sources: Ideal number of births (mean value): Gallup polls (1935 to 1997) and General Social Survey (1972 to 2000); actual number of births: see figure 4.3. Note: Actual numbers of births are cohort total fertility rates dated to the year the cohort turned thirty years old.
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  | important Chart! Until 1800s: higher wages->more children – Then broken: Escape from the Malthusian world TIMESERIES Crude Birth Rates and Real Wages, England, 1541–1871 – Guinnane (2011)
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  | Notes: This figure differs from Wrigley and Schofield (1981, figure 10.1) in two ways. I plot the CBR, not the Gross Rate of Reproduction. The real wage index here is Robert Allen’s “labourers” index, rather than the Phelps Brown-Hopkins index. The series plotted are centered eleven-year moving averages. Allen’s index can be found at: http://www.economics.ox.ac.uk/members/robert.allen/WagesPrices.htm. Source: Based on Wrigley and Schofield (1981), figure 10.6.
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  | Most of the literature uses Malthusian models to understand the relationship between population and the economy before the fertility transition, and views the fertility transition as an escape from the Malthusian world. Figure 5 shows that escape: until the early nineteenth century, there was a posi- tive relationship between fertility and the real wage in England and Wales. Then the relationship breaks down: higher wages, the product of capital accumulation and technological change, no longer translated into higher fertility.
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  | Guinnane, Timothy W. (2011) – The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(3): 589-614. DOI: 10.1257/jel.49.3.589
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  | SCATTER Graph of Total Fertility Rate vs. GDP per capita of the corresponding country, 2009 – Wikipedia
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  | Only countries with over 5 Million population were plotted, to reduce outliers. Sources: CIA World Fact Book.
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  | SCATTER Index of marital fertility by gross domestic product per capita, 1870 and 1930 - Cambridge Economic History Vol. 1
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  | Taken from: The Cambridge Economic History of Modern Europe: Volume 1, 1700-1870
 Figure 2.8 Index of marital fertility by gross domestic product per capita, 1870 and 1930 (Coale and Watkins, 1986; Maddison, 2003a)
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  | SCATTER Gapminder Scatter between Income and Fertility
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  | BARCHART At low incomes, fertility rates remain high—And the poorer the country, the larger the gap between rich and poor – World Development Report 2012
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  | Source: WDR 2012 team estimates based on Demographic and Health Surveys.
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  | The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com.
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  | PAPER The relation between development (measured by HDI) and fertility is U-shaped – Nature
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  | During the twentieth century, the global population has gone through unprecedented increases in economic and social development that coincided with substantial declines in human fertility and population growth rates1, 2. The negative association of fertility with economic and social development has therefore become one of the most solidly established and generally accepted empirical regularities in the social sciences1, 2, 3. As a result of this close connection between development and fertility decline, more than half of the global population now lives in regions with below-replacement fertility (less than 2.1 children per woman)4. In many highly developed countries, the trend towards low fertility has also been deemed irreversible5, 6, 7, 8, 9. Rapid population ageing, and in some cases the prospect of significant population decline, have therefore become a central socioeconomic concern and policy challenge10. Here we show, using new cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the total fertility rate and the human development index (HDI), a fundamental change in the well-established negative relationship between fertility and development as the global population entered the twenty-first century. Although development continues to promote fertility decline at low and medium HDI levels, our analyses show that at advanced HDI levels, further development can reverse the declining trend in fertility. The previously negative development–fertility relationship has become J-shaped, with the HDI being positively associated with fertility among highly developed countries. This reversal of fertility decline as a result of continued economic and social development has the potential to slow the rates of population ageing, thereby ameliorating the social and economic problems that have been associated with the emergence and persistence of very low fertility.
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  | Important! SCATTER Cross-sectional relationship between TFR and HDI in 1975 and 2005.
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  | Mikko Myrskylä, Hans-Peter Kohler & Francesco C. Billari (2009) – Advances in development reverse fertility declines. Nature 460, 741-743 (6 August 2009) | doi:10.1038/nature08230; Received 1 April 2009; Accepted 17 June 2009
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  | The TFR reflects the number of children that would be born to a woman during her lifetime if she experienced the age-specific fertility rates observed in a calendar year.
The HDI is the primary index used by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to monitor and evaluate broadly defined human development, combining with equal weight indicators of a country's health conditions, living standard and human capital11.
An HDI of 0.9 roughly corresponds to 75 years of life expectancy, a GDP per capita of 25,000 US dollars in year 2000 purchasing power parity, and a 0.95 education index (a weighted sum of standardized literacy rate and primary, secondary and tertiary level gross enrolment ratios).
The 1975 data include 107 countries, with 1975 HDI levels ranging from 0.25 to 0.887, and 1975 TFR levels ranging from 1.45 to 8.5; the 2005 data include 140 countries, with 2005 HDI levels ranging from 0.3 to 0.966, and 2005 TFR levels ranging from 1.08 to 7.7. The Spearman's rank correlation between HDI and TFR in 1975 is -0.85 (P < 0.01); the Spearman's rank correlation between HDI and TFR in 2005 is -0.84 (P < 0.01) for countries with HDI < 0.85, and 0.51 (P < 0.01) for countries with HDI greater than or equal to 0.9.
For further details, see Supplementary Information. Countries with a 2005 HDI greater than or equal to 0.9 include (2005 HDI in parentheses): Australia (0.966), Norway (0.961), Iceland (0.956), Ireland (0.95), Luxembourg (0.949), Sweden (0.947), Canada (0.946), Finland (0.945), France (0.945), the Netherlands (0.945), the United States (0.944), Denmark (0.943), Japan (0.943), Switzerland (0.942), Belgium (0.94), New Zealand (0.938), Spain (0.938), the United Kingdom (0.936), Austria (0.934), Italy (0.934), Israel (0.922), Greece (0.918), Germany (0.916), Slovenia (0.913) and South Korea (0.911).
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  | Women’s status –> Fertility
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  | Fertility rates and indicators of women’s status in 79 developing countries – Mäler & Vincent (2003)
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  | N: number of countries. TFR: total fertility rate. PE: women’s share of paid employment (%). UE: percentage of women working as unpaid family workers. I : women’s illiteracy rate (%). Source: IIED/WRI (1987, Table 2.3).
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  | [ref]This is taken from a chapter in Karl-Göran Mäler, Jeffrey R. Vincent (2003) - Handbook of Environmental Economics, Volume 1: Environmental Degradation and Institutional Responses. North Holland. [/ref]
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  | MICRO - PERSPECTIVE -- INDIVIDUAL
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  | Relative changes in age-specific conception rates, 1990–2011 in England and Wales
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  | Copyright
© Crown copyright 2013
You may use or re-use this information (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence. To view this licence, visit
www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/ or write to the Information Policy T
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  | chdagefig2_tcm77-301063.xls
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  | Reproductive Success by Income, Education, Hierarchical Standing
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  | TABLE Reproductive Success of Male Yanomamo, 1987 (by Killer and Non-Killer father) - Clark [Chagnon Data]
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  | TABLE Children Born per Married Man in England, (1891–1911) by social status - Clark
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  | TIMESERIES Surviving children as a function of wealth in England, circa 1620 - Clark
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  | BARCHART Average Number of Children by Socioeconomic Group - France - Clark and Hamilton
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  | – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
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  | – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
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  | Measurement, Data Quality & Definitions
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  | The definition of the Birth Rate – or Crude Birth Rate (CBR) – is "the number of live births occurring among the population of a given geographical area during a given year, per 1,000 mid-year total population of the given geographical area during the same year".[ref]This definition is quoted after the OECD Glossary of Statistical Terms here. https://stats.oecd.org/glossary/detail.asp?ID=490 [/ref]
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  | The Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) is defined as "the average number of daughters a hypothetical cohort of women would have at the end of their reproductive period if they were subject during their whole lives to the fertility rates and the mortality rates of a given period. It is expressed as number of daughters per woman".[ref]This is the definition given by the United Nations World Population Prospects here http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/fertility.htm . [/ref]
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  | The Cumulative Period Fertility Rates (CPFR)
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  | interesting! TIMESERIES Total Fertility Rate and General Fertility Rate: United States, 1970–2005 - Poston and Bouvier (2010)
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  | Gapminder publishes TFR since 1800
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  | The United Nations World Population Prospects online here http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp include data on the number of annual births, the Crude Birth Rate (CBR), Total fertility (TFR), Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) among other measures. Data is available for the entire world – for countries and world regions – from 1950 onwards.
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  | DATA&xls The Human Fertility Database (HFD) http://www.humanfertility.org/cgi-bin/main.php and Human Fertility Data http://www.fertilitydata.org/cgi-bin/data.php publish data for more than 70 countries covering mostly the 2nd half of the 20th century although data for the 1st half of the century is available for some countries. The data is detailed and includes data on fertility rates (by age (ASFR), cohort and period) and mean ages at childbearing. Sweden, Norway, and Finland are the only countries in the this data with info pre 1880. Most is post 1950.
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  | ASFR and CPFR, standardized age scale (All birth orders combined)
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  | DATA&xls Vital Statistics Rates Per 1,000 Population (Births rate, Death rate, infant mortality rate, Marriages) no Fertility Rate – International Historical Statistics
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  | My citatation for a single series:
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  | Generelle Beschreibung der Quelle
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  | Data from 1750 onwards for countries around the world is available in the International Historical Statistics (IHS). These statistics – orignally published under the editorial leadership of Brian Mitchell (since 1983) – are a collection of data sets taken from many primary sources, including both official national and international abstracts dating back to 1750. The books are published in three volumes covering more than 5000 pages.[ref]The printed version is published in 3 volumes: Africa, Asia, Oceania – The Americas – Europe. The volume set is described at the publisher's website here. http://www.palgraveconnect.com/pc/doifinder/10.1057/9781137305688[/ref] At some universities you can access the online version of the books where data tables can be downloaded as ePDFs and Excel files. The online access is here. http://www.palgraveconnect.com/pc/doifinder/10.1057/9781137305688
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  | DATA Wrigley & Schofield have data on Fertility and Mortality over the long-run. Leander says it's very good.
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  | Clio Infra has no fertility data
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  | DATA Annual data on 'Fertility rate, total (births per woman)' [by country] is available in the World Development Indicators (WDI) published by the World Bank (here).
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  | DATA Annual data on 'Birth rate, crude (per 1,000 people)' [by country] is available in the World Development Indicators (WDI) published by the World Bank (here).
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  | DATA&xls Gapminder publishes data on the total fertility rate. Data goes back to 1800 and is available for a great number of countries. The data documentation and the spreadsheets available for download can be found here. (The documentation includes a discussion of the quality of the available data on fertility.) http://www.gapminder.org/data/documentation/gd008/
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  | Important regular publications
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  | Total fertility rate map: average births per woman by districts, 2011
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  | – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
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